arjache

So, as y'all know, I moved a while back. I also moved out of my art studio at the same time, because I hadn't been using it enough to justify keeping it. I recently got back security deposits on both places. This baffled me - while I like to think I've been a good tenant, I'm used to there always being some reason I'll end up having to forfeit the security deposit. So getting back both of them felt a little like winning the lottery.

"Gosh," I thought. "I'd better put this to good use before I get too attached to the idea of having it."

So I went through and made a list and donated to all the non-Presidential political stuff I'd been slacking on lately. Donations to Andrew Rice for Senate in Oklahoma, because I'm from there and I still think of it as home even if it is one of the most deeply red states this election year. Donating to Burner for Congress in the next district over, because it'd be nice to have another geek in Congress. Donating to Gregoire, because I sure as heck don't want to see Dino Rossi as Governor. Donating to No on 8 in California - and then, thinking of a friend in Arizona, donating to Equality Arizona as well. And donating to the South Dakota Campaign for Healthy Families, because the stuff going on over there scares the living daylights out of me.

These are some of the things going on this election year that are important to me. Which ones are important to you?

So this has been bugging me since last night. There seems to be widespread belief that no/no actually won. I'm not convinced the numbers actually bear that out.

The preliminary election results are as follows:

Issue	No	Yes
Rebuild	55%	45%
Tunnel	70%	30%

Okay, so both the rebuild and the tunnel got voted down. But what happens if you think about it in terms of the different combinations of votes people could have made? For the sake of argument, assume that everybody either voted exclusively for the rebuild or tunnel, or voted No/No - that would mean that nobody voted Yes/Yes, and that all Yes votes can be attributed to one of the two Yes/No combinations.

Combination	% votes
Yes on both	0%
Yes rebuild, no tunnel	45%
No rebuild, yes tunnel	30%
No on both	25%

When you look at it this way, the numbers show that the rebuild actually had a plurality. Since the voters were actually voting for three different outcomes, the additional "No/No" votes effectively drew votes away from the other two options and resulted in neither having a majority, but the rebuild got the most votes.

The only reason it looks like surface/transit "won" is because of how oddly structured the ballot was. If the viaduct debate were a presidential election, the rebuild would already be planning its inauguration speech and the tunnel supporters would be calling surface/transit supporters Naderites.